ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 161543 SPC MCD 161543 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-162045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 161543Z - 162045Z SUMMARY...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.04-0.07 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN AR INTO NRN MS AND NWRN AL. DISCUSSION...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLOPED ASCENT ATOP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED WSW/ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. 1009-MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RELATED SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED S OF MONROE LA...AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF ONGOING 1.5-2-MB-PER-2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS DRIVEN BY LLJ-ENHANCED WAA TO THE ENE. A MORE SOLID SHIELD OF RELATIVELY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS APPROACHING/CROSSING THE MS RIVER AT PRESENT...AND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER THIS EWD/ENEWD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION...AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ENHANCING PRECIP RATES. GIVEN THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYER UNDERCUTTING WELL-ABOVE-0C TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NOTABLE COLD WEDGE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NW PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION...WITH GLH SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FROZEN PRECIPITATION ONGOING. RELATED COLD-AIR DAMMING AND SWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- ENHANCED IN THE NW DELTA -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ARCING NATURE OF THE FREEZING-RAIN POTENTIAL AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. ..COHEN.. 02/16/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33179216 34289109 34869003 35008760 34938677 34638697 34448869 34009020 33209102 33029175 33179216 NNNN