ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 260714 
SPC MCD 260714 
FLZ000-260845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND W-CNTRL PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 260714Z - 260845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUST RISK OVER
N FL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA.  A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SUB-1000MB LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WITH A DISTINCT FALL/RISE
PRESSURE COUPLET OVER THE CAROLINA COAST AND NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE FL BIG BEND REGION WITH A MOISTURE
AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WRN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA.  

THE 00Z TBW RAOB SHOWED MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ACT TO STUNT
BUOYANCY AND OVERALL STORM INTENSITY.  AN ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR IS MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IS FOCUSED
FARTHER N OVER NRN FL AND THE GULF STREAM E OF GA/SC.  DESPITE THESE
CONCERNS...A VERY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE SAMPLED BY KJAX
AND KTBW WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS A FEW CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS VIA VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE WIND GUST THREAT...AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS STORMS MOVE EWD OVER THE ERN
GULF SHELF WATERS AND APPROACH THE FL W COAST.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 02/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   26798427 28308337 29798238 30398187 30078127 29188155
            28478233 27398233 26908250 26298309 26798427 

NNNN