ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 251556 
SPC MCD 251556 
MOZ000-KSZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN KS AND SWRN/W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 251556Z - 251830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS
PRESENTLY UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE NWD RETURN OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION VIA THE NWD
SPREAD OF A STRATUS PLUME FROM NRN/ERN OK INTO SRN KS. THIS
AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY A LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 10.3
G/KG PER THE 12Z OUN RAOB...IS ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING ATOP A NWD
SLOPING FRONT. THE FRONT INTERSECTS THE SFC APPROXIMATELY E/W ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL OK. WITH A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING FEED OF AIR ROOTED
NEAR/S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT/FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING W TX
BASED ON MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...AN UPTICK OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS
ALREADY EVIDENT FROM COWLEY COUNTY TO LABETTE COUNTY KS WHERE
INCIPIENT RADAR RETURNS ARE EVIDENT.

WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z DDC RAOB -- I.E.
THE MANIFESTATION OF AN EML OVERLYING THE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE -- MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS...COUPLED WITH 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DEVELOPING IN SRN KS AND TRACKING EWD
INTO MO.

HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE S OF THE MCD AREA -- PRIMARILY
RELEGATED TO AREAS NEAR/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IN MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY...AND SFC-BASED CONVECTION...ARE
TOO LIMITED TO SUBSTANTIATE HIGHER WW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37739823 38299633 38299403 37969245 37419245 37369319
            37299572 37199804 37739823 

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