ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 311925 
SPC MCD 311925 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-312130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 311925Z - 312130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AR BUT POSSIBLY ALSO PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN TN. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...NEAR/SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED/DEEP CU FIELD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AR AND FAR SOUTHERN MO. A /PARTIAL/
19Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD MO NOW FEATURES NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE 70S F
IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUE TO WARM AND BECOME UNSTABLE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY
WELL SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
12Z AFWA/WRF-NSSL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
BUOYANCY...MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGHER-LEVEL WINDS AND AROUND 40 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS MORE
CERTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP/COVERAGE COULD PROMPT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/HART.. 03/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35739346 36889243 36679027 35988931 35168973 34959067
            35049265 35739346 

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