ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010616 
SPC MCD 010616 
ARZ000-OKZ000-010745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14...

VALID 010616Z - 010745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL PROBABLY IS BECOMING
FOCUSED IN AN INCREASINGLY NARROW CORRIDOR...BUT MAY PERSIST INTO
THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...ROUGHLY NEAR/ NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF
MCALESTER...TOWARD AREAS SOUTHWEST OF FORT SMITH.  PARTS OF WW 14
PROBABLY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LOCALLY ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN AREAS NOT YET IMPACTED BY
CONVECTION REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SIZABLE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG FOR MOST UNSTABLE
LIFTED PARCELS.  AND THIS CONTINUES TO COMPENSATE FOR RATHER
MARGINAL KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND SURFACE GUSTS.  IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WITH
STRONGEST STORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED WHERE OUTFLOW ...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EVOLVING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...TRACKS ALONG A WEAK
FRONT/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
ARDMORE/SPENCER THROUGH AREAS SOUTHWEST OF FORT SMITH...BETWEEN NOW
AND 08-10Z.

..KERR.. 04/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35529638 35469542 35289474 35089421 34829383 34409427
            34479484 34489552 34399624 34549659 34929637 35529638 

NNNN