ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020637 
SPC MCD 020637 
MOZ000-KSZ000-020830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KANSAS...INTO PARTS OF W CNTRL/NRN MISSOURI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 020637Z - 020830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA BY 09-10Z.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF A LARGER SCALE LINE/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...IS BEING MAINTAINED BY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD BE ENHANCED A BIT FURTHER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER IMPULSE NOW
PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  TOWARD 09-10Z..AS
THIS LATTER FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN/SPREAD NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO SLACKEN... ACTIVITY SEEMS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS INTO THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA...AND EAST OF ST. JOSEPH...TOWARD CHILLICOTHE MO...ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING.  UNTIL THEN...EVEN
THOUGH CONVECTION IS BASED ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF EASTWARD
ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39179704 39629621 39909545 40259435 40399351 40219267
            39279314 38859433 38699532 38579665 38819713 39179704 

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