ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031923 
SPC MCD 031923 
VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-032100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN...SRN IND...SRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 22...

VALID 031923Z - 032100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 22 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 22 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL KY AND NRN TN WHERE
TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 22
BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SE IND AND WRN KY WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO SCNTRL KY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EWD ALONG THE TN-KY STATELINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 750 J/KG WITH 55 TO 65 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AS
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES INTO LATE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS
AT LOUISVILLE AND NASHVILLE SHOW CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CORRIDOR
MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH OF NASHVILLE WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S F. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND NEWD INTO CNTRL KY
WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT.
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS
AND BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36218369 35898564 35768712 35948796 36428829 36958809
            37448749 38728581 39118439 38898296 37838257 36798289
            36218369 

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