ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032254 
SPC MCD 032254 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-040100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN AR...NRN/CNTRL LA...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032254Z - 040100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OR TWO OF
WHICH COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WHILE
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR LARGE
HAIL REPORT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM SRN AR SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SABINE VALLEY AND SERN TX.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF CU/TCU ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WARM
SECTOR /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY A PASSING GRAVITY WAVE/. WHILE THE
REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN LA/FAR SRN AR...OVERALL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEAGER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SEVERAL FACTORS...INCLUDING WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE /WITH PRIMARILY VEERED SFC FLOW/...LITTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT...AND THE PRESENCE OF CAPPING AROUND 800 MB. AS THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE FRONT ITSELF...CELLS MAY ALSO
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT THIS EVENING. 

REGARDLESS...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN ANY STRONGER CELLS. AS SUCH...AN
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT OR STRONG WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE INSOLATION WANES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
INHIBITING FACTORS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/MEAD.. 04/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32059442 32879361 33279288 33189260 32819235 32019232
            31389257 30859319 30309423 29819552 29939610 30749641
            32059442 

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