ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070851 
SPC MCD 070851 
MOZ000-070945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 070851Z - 070945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD LARGE HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ACROSS CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS E-CNTRL
KS INTO SWRN MO.  RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES HAS SHOWN
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER W-CNTRL MO.  THE
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FOSTERED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE TERMINUS
REGION OF A 45-KT LLJ OVER THE AREA.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER.  SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT/ COUPLED WITH THE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK MID-LEVEL
ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CORES.  CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH IT APPROACHING THE MS RIVER TOWARDS
12Z.  ALTHOUGH SEVERAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL
THREAT...THE ISOLD COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38869319 39939454 39989428 40159224 39669169 39239162
            38959218 38869319 

NNNN