ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072316 
SPC MCD 072316 
CAZ000-080115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL VALLEY OF CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 072316Z - 080115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CNTRL CA. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA IN A POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. LATEST
RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG IS PRESENT AS SFC
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
ONLY 20-30 KT PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION...STORM ORGANIZATION HAS
BEEN HAMPERED BY THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE
HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED.

VWPS FROM AREA RADARS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MODEST...20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...BRIEF/WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITH SOME
OF THE MORE ROBUST CORES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR SACRAMENTO
AROUND 2120Z. AS SFC TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THE MEAGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CNTRL
CA SHOULD DISSIPATE...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT BY 01Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON   36491930 36091976 36272029 39532253 39882265 40042234
            39702149 39172099 37842005 36491930 

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