ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081241 
SPC MCD 081241 
INZ000-ILZ000-081345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL / CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 081241Z - 081345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.  A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE  --MODULATED BY AN ONGOING STORM CLUSTER-- ACROSS CNTRL
IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL INDIANA AND INTO W-CNTRL OH.  A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN IL HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL
INDIANA ALONG THE FRONT.  A WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS LIKELY
AIDING IN STORM SUSTENANCE OVER CNTRL IND AS IT PROGRESSES
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS E-CNTRL AND SERN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE
COLD POOL ARCS WWD FROM NEAR HUF INTO CNTRL IL WHERE ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE MCS.  

WHILE STORM VIGOR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE PLAINS
LAPSE RATE PLUME /REFERENCE 12Z ILX AND ILN RAOBS/...A RELATIVELY
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER PER SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE TRANSITION TO A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEAR
TERM.  NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND
MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN THE ISOLD COVERAGE AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE
OF THE THREAT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   39498851 39878635 40228611 39978492 39228509 38868595
            39118817 39498851 

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