ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081921 
SPC MCD 081921 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-082115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37999634 38519525 38749467 38879347 38779269 38019243
            36799346 36299466 36089589 36039703 36009794 35749892
            35789926 35959919 36759828 37359769 37999634 

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