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Mesoscale Discussion 247 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY...SRN/CNTRL OH...EXTREME NW WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091751Z - 091845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AS
THEY SPREAD INTO SRN/CNTRL OH. A FEW SEVERE WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOW-SHAPED STRUCTURES.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEAK MCV STRUCTURES ARE TRAVERSING THE
MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION. SUBSTANTIAL...BUT MOSTLY WEAK...CONVECTION
IS NOTED AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WITH A CONCENTRATION OF TSTM
ACTIVITY NOW OVER SERN IND/NRN KY/SWRN OH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENED AND SFC
TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. DEEP SWLY SHEAR VECTORS FAVOR
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND BULK SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
SRN OH WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING.
..DARROW/GRAMS.. 04/09/2015
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 39318515 40218335 39938143 38748173 38278409 39318515
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