MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SE MO...SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 092045Z - 092145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
   COVER THE SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS E-CNTRL MO IS
   BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE CAP MAY HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. BOTH VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE AREAS FARTHER W /SRN IL/ ARE
   STILL CAPPED BUT CONTINUED HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   SHOULD LEAD TO THE EROSION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITHIN THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. MOST CERTAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RELATED TO THE TSTMS
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM S-CNTRL IA SWD ACROSS
   CNTRL MO AND INTO NE OK. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BY THE TIME THEY ENTER
   E-CNTRL MO. A MORE UNCERTAIN SEVERE THREAT IS TIED TO POTENTIAL
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WARM
   SECTOR ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
   AND LOW 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...MLCAPE OVER 15OO J
   PER KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DISCRETE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT.

   ..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38049143 38879090 39458984 39418796 38698800 37168872
               36588986 36679090 38049143