MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0436 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092136Z - 092330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY THIS EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN OH...JUST SOUTH
   OF LAKE ERIE. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM
   ASCENT FROM A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WORKING IN
   CONCERT WITH SOME FOCUS FOR INITIATION ALONG A WARM FRONT IN THE
   VICINITY. ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR OVER SENECA/SANDUSKY COUNTIES HAS
   SHOWN SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...WITH SOME ROTATION APPARENT IN
   MRMS PRODUCTS. THE CELL IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
   BY MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 400-1000 J/KG...AND THESE VALUES MAY
   INCREASE FURTHER TO NEAR 1500 J/KG IN ANY POCKETS OF STRONGER
   INSOLATION. STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
   AROUND 40-45 KTS...WHICH COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SRH
   /APPARENT IN REGIONAL VWP DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS/...WILL OFFER THE
   POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND THE RESULTANT POSSIBILITY OF
   A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO. IF CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS INCREASE...A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41388375 41518300 41478261 41468175 41378141 41298122
               41278106 40938113 40628129 40438170 40328239 40448311
               40778378 41198384 41388375