ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092220 
SPC MCD 092220 
MIZ000-092345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 092220Z - 092345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A
TORNADO...MAY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH EARLY EVENING
IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. POSSIBLY AIDED BY A
WEAK MCV OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI/FAR SOUTHWEST MI...A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED TO EXHIBIT AT LEAST WEAK SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AS 0F 22Z. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GRAND
RAPIDS/DETROIT WSR-88D VWPS INDICATIVE OF 250+ M2/S2 0-1 KM
SRH...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO MODESTLY WARM/MOISTEN IN TANDEM WITH THE WARM FRONT.
PENDING UPSTREAM ORGANIZATION OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN IL/FAR
SOUTHERN WI...A MORE CERTAIN ROUND OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS COULD MOVE INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 04/09/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42738629 42908535 42728365 42158319 41768360 41858641
            42738629 

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