MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 100654Z - 100830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS
   GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WAYNE TO
   ROBERTSON COUNTIES IN MIDDLE TN.  WHILE SPECIFIC FORCING MECHANISMS
   FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE NOT READILY APPARENT...RADAR DATA HINT AT A
   POSSIBLE WEAK MCV PRESENT OVER WRN TN WHICH COULD BE A CONTRIBUTING
   FACTOR.  THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  WHILE THE CURRENT
   NASHVILLE VAD INDICATES SOME WEAKNESS /I.E. 40-45 KT/ IN THE SWLY
   WIND FIELD AT AROUND 6 KM...SHEAR IS GENERALLY QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1
   KM VALUES OF AROUND 20 M/S.  AS SUCH...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST SHOULD STORMS
   CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

   ..MEAD.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35098792 36338745 36668674 36648562 36498459 35508500
               35078540 34988618 35098792