ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120119 
SPC MCD 120119 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 120119Z - 120215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN SW KS AND THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL...WIND
DAMAGE AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST.
WFO DODGE CITY HAS EXTENDED THE WATCH TO HANDLE THE EVENING SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS SW KS.

DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...THE
FIRST IN SW KS AND THE SECOND IS IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THE CELLS
WILL BE MOVING EWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS NW OK AND SW KS...THE STORM
IN SOUTHWEST KS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO PERSIST. DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
CONTINUE WILL HAVE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SHORT-TERM
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT CELL COVERAGE ACROSS SW KS COULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. 

FURTHER SOUTH...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF
LUBBOCK NEAR A MAX IN INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AT JUST
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   37300166 35730143 34150138 33540135 33620073 34520012
            35469977 35879950 37049838 37659843 38039885 38079963
            38040043 37950115 37300166 

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