ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122239 
SPC MCD 122239 
TXZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 122239Z - 130045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN EWD-PROGRESSING SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER DEEP SOUTH TX BY
APPROXIMATELY 00-01Z...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH...WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z...SATELLITE/RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA CLEARLY
DEFINED A SQUALL LINE PUSHING EWD AROUND 35 KT ACROSS COAHUILA
MEXICO. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED...IT WILL CROSS THE RIO GRANDE AROUND
00-01Z. FOLLOWING THE SQUALL LINE...AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
/ILLUSTRATED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE BIG BEND/ WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST...WHERE PRES
FALLS OF 1-2 MB PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ALSO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT...AS TEMPS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S HAVE STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX. MOREOVER...THE 18Z BRO RAOB
SAMPLED A MEAN MIXING RATIO OF NEARLY 15 G/KG. WITH THIS LINE
PUSHING EAST INTO SUCH WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...THE WIND THREAT
SHOULD PERSIST. AS SUCH...WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR
FUTURE.

..PICCA/HART.. 04/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   30099987 29589847 28939796 28169758 27399755 26339788
            26129801 26309872 26499909 28130002 29170072 29820164
            30240126 30099987 

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