ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152046 
SPC MCD 152046 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-152215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152046Z - 152215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING BAND OF STORMS OVER SERN LA MAY POSE
ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- THOUGH
LIKELY NOT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN
LA ATTM...ALONG A WNW-ESE CONFLUENCE BAND INDICATED ON LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS.  THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY AFTERNOON
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH HAS PUSHED MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE PER RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INVOF
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND N OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NNE...RAPID
VEERING/INCREASING OF THE FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS YIELDING SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION -- AS IS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED WITHIN ONE STRONGER/ORGANIZED CELL JUST W OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN ATTM.  THOUGH EXPECT RISK TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH
RESPECT TO BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...LOCAL RISK FOR MARGINAL
HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 04/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29879052 30259148 30699132 31339035 31178927 30698839
            30148844 29438937 29879052 

NNNN