ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152137 
SPC MCD 152137 
COZ000-152300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PORTION OF N-CNTRL/NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152137Z - 152300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW RISK FOR A SVR TSTM OR TWO MAY EXIST DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE MARGINALITY AND LOW COVERAGE OF SUCH
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE N SIDE OF A SFC CYCLONE CENTERED ENE OF DENVER.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
AROUND 250-500 J/KG EXTENDING WWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE N OF THE SFC
LOW. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
AND DCVA PRECEDING A CNTRL GREAT BASIN DEEP CYCLONE ARE ENCOURAGING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WITH 40-50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING
POSSIBLE MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD.
STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN SUPPORTING STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY AND THE CORRESPONDING SVR-TSTM RISK.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...

LAT...LON   40800385 40480360 40200376 40250519 40830534 40970426
            40800385 

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