ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170610 
SPC MCD 170610 
TXZ000-170745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 170610Z - 170745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR WEST TX/TX
SOUTH PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE RELATIVELY
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE HAIL RISK WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS INCLUDING
AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK...WITH ADDITIONAL/MORE ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER
EAST OF HOBBS NM. WITH A SURFACE LOW NOTED JUST W/NW OF
MIDLAND...THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED EASTWARD-SHIFTING BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY-RELATED UPLIFT
ASIDE...THE RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENHANCED
BY A SUBTLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA-CENTERED UPPER LOW AS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. THIS SPEED MAXIMUM
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR...WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA CONSISTENT WITH AROUND 35-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. REGARDLESS...EVEN WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL...RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
ELEVATED BUOYANCY...AS PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM MIDLAND...WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34640017 33609975 32140134 32850298 34070149 34640017 

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