ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190756 
SPC MCD 190756 
MSZ000-LAZ000-190930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN LA INTO WESTERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 190756Z - 190930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY WITH EASTWARD-MOVING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL LA INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN LA/WESTERN MS. CURRENT THINKING
IS THE SCENARIO WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL OVERALL...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A 100+ MILE NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LA WILL CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LA AND WESTERN MS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SQUALL LINE...MEASURED 38 KT WIND GUSTS WERE NOTED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS IN WESTERN LA AT BOTH SHREVEPORT AND BEAUREGARD. THIS
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY AN MCV...ASIDE FROM
THE INCREASING INFLUENCES OF AN UPSTREAM SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH/WARM
ADVECTION. MCV-RELATED WINDS/REAR INFLOW DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY
STRONG PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT/FT POLK.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HELP SUSTAIN THIS
RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN MS. PARTICULARLY SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION/MODEST BUOYANCY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THE
LINE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32409314 32629241 32429066 31639059 30619214 30579312
            31469282 32409314 

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