ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241756 
SPC MCD 241756 
OKZ000-TXZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
TX... AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
            35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127 

NNNN