ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 260057 
SPC MCD 260057 
FLZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 260057Z - 260200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN FL PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT AROUND 40 KT...ALONG/S OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WRN SHORES OF THE NRN FL
PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION OF THESE TSTMS
SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST.
HOWEVER...MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG WITH RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...AND
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN OR INCREASE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   28938083 28628112 28658261 29008296 29268314 29748298
            29818205 29718122 28938083 

NNNN