ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272140 
SPC MCD 272140 
FLZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 272140Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F IN MANY LOCATIONS AMIDST MID-60S TO
MID-70S SFC DEWPOINTS. THIS HAS YIELDED SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO
SUPPORT STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF WARM MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS
HIGHLANDS/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...WHICH FORMED ALONG A SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT. 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUPPORTING MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH THIS STORM...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
ONE-INCH HAIL. OTHER TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER S BETWEEN MIA AND
PBI ALONG A WWD MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HERE...TSTMS WILL HAVE A
SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER LAND GIVEN ELY MOTION...BUT BRIEF HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY EXIST. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THREAT
COULD EXIST IF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CAN INTERACT WITH MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
THREATS WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   25098037 25238081 26248107 27518120 28028088 28128051
            27608021 26557990 25638007 25098037 

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