ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051901 
SPC MCD 051901 
TXZ000-NMZ000-052030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051901Z - 052030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DRY-SLOT OVER FAR ERN NM AND
WEST TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ERN NM TO THE
WEST OF THE DRY-SLOT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE NWRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 500 TO 750 J/KG. PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASE
INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS NEAR -14C/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

..BROYLES/HART.. 05/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34650486 35660389 35870306 35210254 34300280 33380330
            32800367 32660425 32800496 33350537 34310506 34650486 

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