ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082215 
SPC MCD 082215 
TXZ000-082345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 082215Z - 082345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR FURTHER
STORM ORGANIZATION.

DISCUSSION...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SUPERCELL HAS
EVOLVED OVER WILLIAMSON COUNTY ON THE SWRN FLANK OF A LARGER TSTM
CLUSTER...AND AMIDST A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.  THIS INSTABILITY
IS CO-LOCATED WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO PROMOTE DEEP
UPDRAFT ROTATION.

PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.  AND WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A LOW-LCL BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND A RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.

DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 05/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30789780 31249776 31569758 31779715 31849651 31659589
            31309555 30819546 30489580 30359634 30449692 30519744
            30789780 

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