ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090903 
SPC MCD 090903 
TXZ000-OKZ000-091000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG COUNTRY / WRN N-CNTRL TX / SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 090903Z - 091000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP.  WHILE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL
HAZARD/COVERAGE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AND A SEVERE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AROUND 09Z SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG
STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE TX BIG COUNTRY
WITH OTHER WEAKER WARM-ADVECTION STORMS DEVELOPING IN THEIR WAKE
FARTHER W/NW.  SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE EFFECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING NWD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
STORM ACTIVITY W OF ABI.  THE INFLUX OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY /2000-3000 J PER KG MUCAPE/ PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. 
ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE A NEAR-SURFACE
STABLE LAYER...IT IS PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE A FEED OF NEAR-SURFACE PARCELS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
ACQUIRED BY STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS.  IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WOULD PROBABLY ENSUE AND A MORE
ROBUST HAIL RISK WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP.  UNLESS THIS OCCURS...CURRENT
THINKING IS THE HAIL RISK WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED AND NOT
REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/09/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32670062 34029994 35279996 35199852 34299784 33209808
            32589863 32060016 32670062 

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