ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110219 
SPC MCD 110219 
MOZ000-IAZ000-110315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL IA AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 110219Z - 110315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL IA INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MO. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 1-3
HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MO. A NARROW WARM
SECTOR WEDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT IT IS LIKELY THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE AS NOCTURNAL COOLING
PROCESSES ENSUE. WEAK CONFLUENCE IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS MAINTAINING A FEED OF RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR INTO A
BAND OF STORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF DSM IN IA TO NORTHWEST OF CDJ IN
MO. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE AND MAY
AID IN CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THIS CONVECTION. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE DMX AND DVN VWP/S CONTINUE TO SHOW
LARGE...CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WHILE THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION...CONTINUED DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41359417 41769411 41859386 41809356 41509281 41089214
            40889190 40569190 40149217 39949250 39869354 39939431
            41359417 

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