ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110731 
SPC MCD 110731 
TXZ000-110900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX / SRN HILL
COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 110731Z - 110900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF AN
ISOLD LARGE-HAIL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE TRAILING
PORTION OF A STALLED PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL ZONE/DRYLINE DRAPED OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/SRN HILL COUNTRY.  A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED FARTHER N ARCING FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.  ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING A FETCH OF RICH MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEG F.  THE 00Z DRT RAOB SHOWED MODERATE BUOYANCY ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP WLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
CNTRL U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.  AS A RESULT...FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AND POTENTIALLY A
LARGE-HAIL THREAT.  RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD
PROBABLY YIELD STRONG CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE.  WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29830191 30300180 30650138 30749965 30569927 30309901
            29899922 29619984 29550154 29830191 

NNNN