ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 112223 
SPC MCD 112223 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-120000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH...NRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...166...

VALID 112223Z - 120000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
165...166...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A PREDOMINANT
RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS
FROM SWRN OH TO NRN KY.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF THE WELL-DEFINED QLCS ACROSS CNTRL
OH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED FROM SWRN OH INTO NRN
KY ALONG THE PRIMARY WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.
THE RIBBON OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY NARROW WITH NRN EXTENT AS RECOVERY TIME IS
LIMITED BEHIND THE LEAD QLCS. IN ADDITION...PROBABLE POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CURTAIL UPDRAFT STRENGTH. BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT VERSUS THE LEAD QLCS
WITH KLVX VWP DATA SAMPLING 0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 45 KT...THE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY ACROSS
FAR NRN KY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

..GRAMS.. 05/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38498559 39008467 39868378 40058315 39678289 38878315
            38308350 37938375 37688408 37478469 37538528 37688562
            37868587 38498559 

NNNN