ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 112326 
SPC MCD 112326 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...NRN WV...FAR WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...167...

VALID 112326Z - 120030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
165...167...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY A EWD-MOVING QLCS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z. PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS 50 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...QLCS EXTENDED FROM LAKE COUNTY OH TO WIRT COUNTY WV AS
OF 2310Z. MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S/40S-KT HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THIS LINE...WITH A PEAK GUST TO 49 KT IN KCAK AT 2254Z. FORWARD
SPEED OF THE QLCS HAS BEEN AT AROUND 40-45 KT WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
QLCS TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 167 NEAR 01Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND RISK IN
THE NEAR-TERM. BUT WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPSTREAM 700-MB SWLY JET OVER THE
MIDWEST...THE LONGEVITY OF THE DAMAGING WIND RISK IS UNCERTAIN AFTER
SUNSET.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   42228056 42667922 42547873 42127844 41217848 40227874
            39167952 38688043 38658097 39238139 40068126 40698101
            41358100 41848072 42228056 

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