ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121752 
SPC MCD 121752 
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN VA...NRN/ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 121752Z - 122015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF A LEE TROUGH
EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
TO THE EAST OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON DC SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CHARLOTTE NC. STRONG HEATING HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MODERATE WSW/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH 25-35 KT OF
DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF
LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN AND WRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...
THOUGH THE SVR-HAIL RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND NEAR THE
LARGEST TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS...WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
EVAPORATIVELY DRIVEN DOWNDRAFTS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A
WW IS NOT PRESENTLY EXPECTED -- THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..CONIGLIO/COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37607868 37857822 38197735 38067629 37767587 36927546
            35987538 34657700 34837814 35307894 35627975 35938013
            36477991 37327906 37607868 

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