ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 122040 SPC MCD 122040 TXZ000-NMZ000-122245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHWEST TX...FAR SOUTH CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 122040Z - 122245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND WILL MOVE INTO THE MCD AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE AREA AFFECTED AND INTENSITY OF THE THREAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS AND HAVE TAKEN ON A LINEAR ORGANIZATION APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL. MODIFIED 12Z EL PASO SOUNDING SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NM WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO BUILD ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...A NARROW ZONE OF HEATING FROM THE WESTERN BIG BEND REGION INTO THE EL PASO AREA HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE TO INCREASE TO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE NORTHERN OCCIDENTALS SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE MCD AREA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MOST ORGANIZED BOWING/LINEAR STRUCTURES. THE SMALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL THREAT...SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE IN THAT TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE MCD AREA...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEATHER WATCH. ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 31180586 31620647 31850683 31980714 32180754 32600780 32950762 33010709 32580549 32140490 31550462 31140442 30590420 30220440 30130467 30380496 30470508 31080576 31180586 NNNN