ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142020 
SPC MCD 142020 
KSZ000-COZ000-142245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 142020Z - 142245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING ARE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO AT THE ERN EDGE OF
NEAR-DRY-ADIABATIC SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES THAT ALIGN WITH A
NW/SE-ORIENTED LEE TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE OF PUEBLO TO W
OF SPRINGFIELD. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF
THE RELATED CU FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST WITH RESPECT TO
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS OWING TO MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
SAMPLED BY THE AMA AND DNR 12Z RAOBS. REGARDLESS...ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS DIURNALLY ENHANCED PBL
CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH. THE PUX VWP SAMPLES DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH A VEERING WIND
PROFILE THAT WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH ONLY MODEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESTRICT DEEP SHEAR.

NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN E OF THE LEE TROUGH HAS
SUPPORTED SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO ENCOURAGE MLCAPE AROUND
500-1500 J/KG GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD...POTENTIALLY CONTAINING ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. STRONG SFC WINDS WOULD BE AIDED BY
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-20F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS. HOWEVER...LACKING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL
SVR-TSTM RISK.

..COHEN/GUYER.. 05/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37150261 37670359 38190404 38530277 38280163 37580109
            37170160 37150261 

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