ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151913 
SPC MCD 151913 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-152115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MO...W-CENTRAL IL...EXTREME SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151913Z - 152115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVERALL...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS WERE STRENGTHENING ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL MO...WITH ADDITIONAL/MORE WIDELY SCTD TSTMS EWD
INTO W-CENTRAL IL. DESPITE HIGH-LEVEL/TSTM ANVIL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEWD-MOVING STORMS CONTINUE
TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER 60S
DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN AFTN MLCAPE AVERAGING 1500-2000 J/KG WITH
LITTLE CINH EVIDENT. MODESTLY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIKELY
ENHANCED BY AN MCV APPROACHING NWRN MO...WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR FOR MAINLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 05/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38328946 38599182 38959350 39309435 39539493 39869542
            40189566 40649566 41079502 40949318 40629177 40309099
            39778943 39038889 38328946 

NNNN