ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 160105 SPC MCD 160105 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NM AND SERN CO...SWRN KS...MUCH OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160105Z - 160330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET MAXIMUM ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM A SFC CENTERED OVER NERN CO ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. FURTHER W...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NM. SEVERAL UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE DRYLINE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY FORM ON THE DRYLINE...THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT TO MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND DDC SHOW MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AMIDST MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. GENERALLY SLY WINDS AT THE SFC VEER AND STRENGTHEN WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY ACROSS THE MCD AREA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS OR MULTIPLE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/16/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 33200273 33610324 35750306 36680257 37530204 37760073 37789983 36959955 34919978 33580045 33200273 NNNN