ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161735 
SPC MCD 161735 
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...PARTS OF WV...MD...DE...VA...DC...NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 161735Z - 162000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. DUE
TO THE MARGINALITY OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AT 1730Z...DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
SWRN PA INTO NRN WV...WITH ANOTHER RECENTLY DEVELOPED STORM SOUTH OF
ELM NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER. WHILE THE STORMS ACROSS SWRN PA ARE NOT
WELL-ORGANIZED...A WEAK COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED IN THEIR
WAKE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK AS STORMS
ADVANCE EWD INTO A WELL-MIXED...MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 25-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING
WIND. GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...MAKING WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

..DEAN/DIAL.. 05/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38957997 40407975 41137936 41727909 41937794 42097701
            41997543 41577461 41117427 40447415 39347533 38547703
            38957997 

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