ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170725 
SPC MCD 170725 
TXZ000-170900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...

VALID 170725Z - 170900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ACROSS CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE
MARGINAL WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF WW 183.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING LINE SEGMENT IN THE
ERN PART OF WW 183. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WRN EDGE OF A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S
F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP FUEL THE LINE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE SAN ANTONIO WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM.
THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD BECOME MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29519972 29610039 29900064 30270032 30699962 31089930
            31519874 31169801 30309865 29519972 

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