ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190201 
SPC MCD 190201 
TXZ000-NMZ000-190330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...

VALID 190201Z - 190330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCAL SEVERE RISK CONTINUES WITH STRONGER CELLS IN/NEAR
THE WW.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE EARLIER/WELL-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL OVER ERN REEVES/NRN PECOS COUNTY HAS WEAKENED.  THIS HAS
LIKELY OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE ONSET OF MODEST
DIURNAL COOLING...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THUS
DISRUPTING ISOLATED/CELLULAR STORM MODE.  THE TREND TOWARD MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...AS
A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS YIELDING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED
ASCENT.

WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT AS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE/SHEAR REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK -- PARTICULARLY ON THE HIGH END -- HAS
DIMINISHED.  WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...PRIND THAT A NEW WW
WILL NOT BE REQUIRED BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 19/03Z EXPIRATION OF WW
188.

..GOSS.. 05/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   29950336 30290373 30730401 31060411 31890408 33780380
            34260300 32270221 31340054 29750176 29590261 29950336 

NNNN