ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231902 
SPC MCD 231902 
TXZ000-NMZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR W TX...TRANS-PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231902Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
CONCHO RIVER VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTN
AS REMAINING CINH DIMINISHES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A TSTM
COMPLEX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA REGION IN MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS
/UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEW POINTS/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE/STRONG
BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
EVENTUALLY BOWING SEGMENTS.

FARTHER W...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS JEFF DAVIS AND REEVES COUNTIES IN FAR W TX
THIS AFTN IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/SVR GUSTS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW
PRIOR TO 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29830238 29690269 29170301 29040325 29270370 29470407
            29730436 30090451 30550456 30980432 31200414 31610374
            32100315 32390210 32580162 32690072 32029993 31029963
            29759972 29339982 28629989 28450028 28970059 29370092
            29790149 29850183 29830238 

NNNN