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Mesoscale Discussion 747 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...
VALID 242341Z - 250115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH SOME SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. TORNADO WATCH 207
CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z.
DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST FROM EASTERN
IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING IN AREAS ALONG
I-88/JUST SOUTH OF ROCKFORD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTH
CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
A TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL-RELATED TORNADOES LIKELY EXISTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/CROSSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWARD-DRIFTING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM QUAD
CITIES/CHICAGO SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 200-300
M2/S2...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK PARTICULARLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F.
..GUYER.. 05/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40449155 41489157 42319097 42178930 41458812 39578995
40449155
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