ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250419 
SPC MCD 250419 
KSZ000-OKZ000-250515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250419Z - 250515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INCLUDING AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF DODGE CITY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...A
PERSISTENT DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GRAY
COUNTY AS OF 1115 PM CDT/0415Z. WHILE OVERALL SUPERCELL INTENSITY
MAY BE POST-PEAK AND ENVIRONMENTAL CINH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS...SUPERCELL INTERNAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER DODGE CITY WSR-88D VWP DATA COULD
MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT TOWARD THE DODGE CITY AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT TIME FRAME...IF NOT BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE
EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH IT LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37920083 38120025 38239984 38039946 37159963 36960098
            37920083 

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