ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 251513 SPC MCD 251513 TXZ000-OKZ000-251715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... VALID 251513Z - 251715Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX. HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX. EARLY HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING SRN PLAINS RAOBS. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA. LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS. AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN OK. ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB... MAF... LAT...LON 34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700 30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077 34869867 34989626 NNNN