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Mesoscale Discussion 770 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...
VALID 252215Z - 252345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX
INTO AR/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING. POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN CONCERNS
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA. TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES
UNTIL 03Z.
DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/CIRCULATIONS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 5PM CDT/22Z. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A PREVALENT CONCERN. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SHOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND FAR
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
INFLECTION IN THE LINE NEARING THE OK AND AR BORDER VICINITY /AT
22Z/ COINCIDENT WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE MAXIMIZED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WARM
SECTOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AR MAY
INCREASINGLY ACQUIRE ROTATION AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES...SUCH THAT AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK COULD OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE.
..GUYER.. 05/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35349535 35679518 36289410 36299192 35309113 32409165
31429302 31879526 33849508 35349535
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