ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252306 
SPC MCD 252306 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-260100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 252306Z - 260100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONTINUING
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT
AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM FAR SERN SD NEWD INTO SRN MN
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELD A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THAT TO
THE SW...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OFFERING A SUBSTANTIVELY
STRONGER WIND FIELD. IN TURN...ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION AND LATEST
88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS TO THE S/E OF FSD
/WHICH HAVE PRODUCED 1-1.75 IN HAIL/. MOST LIKELY...FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE WEST AND SOME FURTHER
INSOLATION WILL COMBINE WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES TO YIELD MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH...WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42679665 43449725 44119589 44499136 44038967 42949035
            42679665 

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