ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271550 
SPC MCD 271550 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-271715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS THROUGH VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 271550Z - 271715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS INCREASE ACROSS
THIS AREA.  WW POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK N-S CONFLUENCE
AXIS/TROUGH ACROSS ERN NY JUST W OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON
VALLEYS...WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-EXISTING MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ UNDERWAY ALONG THIS AXIS. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TCU/CB ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- A FEW NOW PRODUCING LIGHTNING --
INDICATED IN THE LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING LOOPS.

MORNING ALB RAOB AND LATEST AREA WSR-88D VWPS REVEAL WEAKLY
VEERING/STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY
INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
WILL SUPPORT A STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. 
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HAIL RISK...BUT
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   45357117 43367229 41787376 41977546 43817450 45017394
            45097171 45357117 

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