ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272009 
SPC MCD 272009 
TXZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...TX BIG COUNTY...TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 272009Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TSTMS
DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF THE NW TX SWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY.
NRN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED AS A GRAVITY WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE SRN ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. STORMS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE 70 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM SUGGESTING SOME INFLUENCE BY
THIS SUBTLE MOISTURE BOUNDARY AS WELL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THESE
BOUNDARIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 3000 J
PER KG PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME HAIL
AND DOWNBURST THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS NOTED IN MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS IN
RECENT RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP OVERALL BULK SHEAR LOW WITH A
MOSTLY PULSE STORM MODE ANTICIPATED. THIS LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY. AS SUCH...A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33099967 33789916 33999848 33639799 32599802 31229816
            30419859 30539990 32019992 33099967 

NNNN