ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 300558 
SPC MCD 300558 
TXZ000-300730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF W CNTRL/NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242...

VALID 300558Z - 300730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED EAST/EAST
SOUTHEAST OF WW 242 PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...AFTER BRIEFLY FLARING UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY TENDED
TO WEAKEN AGAIN.  DUE TO THE APPARENT MODEST TO WEAK NATURE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE
CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES AT AROUND 30-35 KT...TOWARD THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.  

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR TO BE PERSISTING WEST
THROUGH NORTH OF ABILENE...WHERE THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERSECTS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH TRAILS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU REGION.  IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE
CAPE...STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD LINGER ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE ABILENE AREA.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT COULD STILL BE LIMITED IN GENERAL BY THE
WEAK DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW/SHEAR.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33179985 33079826 32549737 31649810 31750014 32450067
            33020078 33179985 

NNNN